When the stock market starts
going up, most people are, initially, scared to step aboard. It's not until
stocks have gone up a long way for a long time that most investors become
interested and start buying. On the other hand, when stocks start dropping, most
investors are not afraid. Their courage has been strengthening by the steadily
rising price. Only because the market has risen a long way, investors believe it
will keep going up. It is almost a gold-rush mentality.
Contrarian Investors buy on
bad news, and sell on good news. "Buy low, sell high", That's how an investor
must think in order to make money.
Contrarian investing is not
new. In fact, it has a long history. But a review of the most recent articles on
contrarian investing show that there has been a gap. Because contrarian
investing can be a difficult strategy to follow, and requires commitment and
discipline to make it work.
The
Contrarian Thinking: A contrarian investor evaluates the
opinion of the investing public, and when that opinion gets an unreasonable
extreme, invests against it. Why we can profit from contrary opinion:
The basic concept is that if
most traders are bullish, it means that most market participants who believe
prices are going higher are already long, and therefore the path of least
resistance is down. A similar line of reasoning would apply when most traders
are bearish.
This is true for both market
tops and market bottoms. At the top, investors have committed all their money to
the market, meaning there is no more money available to push it higher. At the
bottom, these investors have taken all their money off the table, and typically
will refuse to invest until the market renaissance is clearly under way.
It is also critical to
remember that a contrarian point of view is just an entry and exit technique.
You are looking for the right time to buy and to sell, and are using the crowd's
opinion to tell you when the time is right. But once you've taken a position,
you want the majority to come around to your point of view. Then, you can stay
with them for most of the ride. Only the majority can push the price of an
investment up or down enough to create the kinds of profits you want to earn.
After you buy a stock, you want other investors to see the bargain you spotted,
and you want them to pile in to drive the share price higher.
Most of the time the majority
will come around and see what you saw. Once you've purchased that stock, you
need to be able to flip your thinking and go along for the ride. That's the
great irony of contrarian investing. Most of the time, you're actually going
along with the crowd. The crowd is wrong at the tops and bottoms, when you're
buying and selling, but in between the group actually sees things your way.
You're just trying to get in before the crowd when you're buying, and out before
the crowd when you're selling.
For every true contrarian,
there are a hundred investors who falsely claim the contrarian mentality. Many
are value investors, who often choose the same beaten-up stocks contrarians are
buying. But the value investor is merely looking for bargain stocks. Those
selling at discount to their actual value, and isn't as interested in extreme
opinion. Just because an investor takes an unpopular attitude, disagrees with
the crowd, or buys stocks trading at their lows doesn't make him a contrarian. A
contrarian is interested in extremes in market reaction, not just disagreement
with the majority.
In short, by using these
rules, the contrarian will hardly ever buy a stock unless almost everyone else
hates it. It's not enough to have many investors saying bad things about a
company's shares.
The
Advantage of Contrarian Investing:
Buying and selling when others won't. In buying, you've
already bought your ticket and have the best seat in the house when the
investment crowd start bidding for their own spots in line. In selling, you are
out the door before the others, and won't be crushed when the crowd rushes to
get out of a stock. That doorway can be pretty narrow!
Liquidity drives markets. By
getting in early, you are in a position to let other investors drive up the
price of the shares you already own. Likewise, you are out before investors
start taking money off the table when the prices of those shares start to fall.
You will also find that
disgraced stocks often create less risk, as the bad news has already been built
into their prices. In a falling market, that means stocks that already were
trading near their lows will frequently drop a lot less than shares that had
been trading near their highs.
Since a
contrarian takes action against the crowd, all the other investors already will
have pushed the individual stock, industry sector, market index, or commodity to
an extreme price. That, by definition, allows the contrarian to buy low and sell
high.
The
Disadvantage of Contrarian Investing:
Succeeding as a contrarian
investor is more than just opposing with the public. If that were all there was
to it, everyone would embrace this approach to investing. Being a contrarian
means not only disagreeing with the crowd, but knowing when to act on that
disagreement. That means looking for extremes: specifically, buying when a stock
has been beaten down below its fair value, or selling short when the price of a
stock has been pushed up above its actual worth.
But estimating extreme sentiment can be quite
difficult. Actually, it's the point at which many people go wrong in contrarian
thinking. You need a real extreme in order to act.
The
Difficulties of Contrarian Thinking:
Thinking like a contrarian will be difficult as
you are bucking existing opinion. When everyone around you is bullish on the
stock market, it takes strong courage and an independent mind to be on the
lookout for the chance to bet the other way. We all want to fit in. But as a
contrarian, you must become a detached thinker and learn to be comfortable
as a loner. Indeed, being alone is reassurance to the dedicated contrarian.
Contrarians can often pull
the trigger too early. Doing so means they are not only alone in their opinion
but, for a time, are wrong as well. That loneliness can be disturbing when
nearly everyone you talk with has a viewpoint that's opposite yours. The role of
the contrarian can be lonely indeed. However, for contrarians to profit, all the
other investors have to be wrong when you are buying or selling your shares.